Al-Ettifaq

0 - 0

Al Najma

Al-Ettifaq hosted Al Najma in the Pro League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 5 waves, achieving 11% precision with a net result of $-7339.00 (ROI: -72.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline shortened from 1.61 to 1.48.

### Wave 1 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al Najma leading 0-1 at 40'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Al-Ettifaq -1.5 and Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ettifaq -1. Average expected value was 26.6%, with a combined stake of $5139. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 35.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-5139.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Al-Ettifaq -0.5. Average expected value was 19.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 19.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 72'. Al-Ettifaq made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 80' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 80'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$800.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 84' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 84'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Najma 0. Average expected value was 46.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Al Najma 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma 0: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 36.4% (44.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma 0: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 36.4% (43.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 47.6% (35.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 47.6% (35.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq -1.5: AI saw 67.8% vs market's 37.4% (30.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 1W/7L/1V, $-3500.00 (ROI: -71.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 1W/7L/1V, $-3639.00 (ROI: -72.2%)

Possession was 59–41 in Al-Ettifaq's favor. Al-Ettifaq had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Al Najma's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.48 — Al Najma 1.06. Corners: 6-3.