Al-Ettifaq

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Al-Ittihad FC

Al-Ettifaq hosted Al-Ittihad FC in the Pro League, finishing 1-3. Goals: H. Aouar (3'), H. Aouar (4'), M. Diaby (19'), K. Al Ghannam (26'), M. Diaby (79'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 4 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$421.44 (ROI: +78.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.82; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 3.58 to 3.23.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ittihad FC leading 0-1 at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +1.5. Average expected value was 40.6%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.2% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 37.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Ittihad FC leading 1-2 at 29'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +1. Average expected value was 37.3%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.2% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 34.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Ittihad FC leading 1-2 at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +1 and Under 5.5 and Under 5.25 and Under 5. Average expected value was 48.4%, with a combined stake of $488. The sharpest edge was on Under 5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 39.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** 9 of 12 trades won, netting +$402.65. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Ittihad FC leading 1-2 at 41'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +0.5 and Al-Ittihad FC and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 29.5%, with a combined stake of $36. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 6 of 9 trades won, netting +$12.39.

- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 48.3% (39.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +0.5: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 41.2% (39.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +0.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 41.2% (38.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +0.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 41.2% (38.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +1.5: AI saw 93.2% vs market's 55.6% (37.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$155.93 (ROI: +89.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$129.55 (ROI: +74.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$129.55 (ROI: +74.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$6.40 (ROI: +53.3%)

Possession was 53–47 in Al-Ettifaq's favor. Al-Ettifaq had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Ittihad FC's 16 (9 on target). Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.41 — Al-Ittihad FC 3.19. Corners: 5-1.