Al-Ahli Jeddah3 - 0Al Kholood
Al-Ahli JeddahWhy did AI enter 2 times at 17', 35' — and still finish +$317?
Match Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah hosted Al Kholood in the Pro League, finishing 3-0. Goals: I. Toney (18'), S. Abu Al Shamat (20'), E. Millot (41'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 89% precision with a net result of +$316.59 (ROI: +95.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Kholood -1. Average expected value was 37.1%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al Kholood -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 34.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Al-Ahli Jeddah leading 2-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4 and Under 4.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 61.8%, with a combined stake of $326. The sharpest edge was on Under 4 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 93.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 44.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$320.59.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 49.8% (44.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 49.8% (43.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 50.3% (43.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 50.3% (43.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 40.0% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$160.30 (ROI: +98.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$160.30 (ROI: +98.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favor. Al-Ahli Jeddah had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Al Kholood's 4 (2 on target). Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 — Al Kholood 0.71. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +95.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$160.30.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +95.9% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$160.30.
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