Al-Ahli Jeddah

3 - 1

Al-Fateh

Al-Ahli Jeddah hosted Al-Fateh in the Pro League, finishing 3-1. Goals: I. Toney (27' pen), S. Bendebka (50'), I. Toney (76' pen), I. Toney (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 5 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-5527.21 (ROI: -52.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.83; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.88.

### Wave 1 — Minute 16' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 16'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fateh -1. Average expected value was 30.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 28.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Fateh -1 and Under 2.5 and Al-Fateh -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $4235. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 41.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-1559.60. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Ahli Jeddah leading 1-0 at 50'. S. Bendebka scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Fateh -0.5 and Al-Ahli Jeddah and Draw. Average expected value was 17.4%, with a combined stake of $3427. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ahli Jeddah (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 20.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1049.61. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after null's equalizer at 51'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Fateh -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $1718. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 16.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1718.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 75'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Fateh -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 39.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 55.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 41.2% (55.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 38.5% (41.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1.5: AI saw 79.8% vs market's 38.5% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 16'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1: AI saw 68.4% vs market's 40.0% (28.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 45.5% (26.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-700.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-1226.68 (ROI: -31.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-1382.53 (ROI: -37.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2218.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 56–44 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favor. Al-Ahli Jeddah had 20 shots (9 on target) versus Al-Fateh's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.83 — Al-Fateh 1.15. Corners: 2-2.