Torreense0 - 0Casa Pia
TorreenseWhy did AI enter 4 times at 10', 35', 46', 57' — and still finish $-213?
Match Overview
Torreense hosted Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, finishing 0-0. Casa Pia received a red card (, 76'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 4 waves, achieving 22% precision with a net result of $-212.72 (ROI: -93.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.77 to 1.78; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Torreense -0.5. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Torreense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 48.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Torreense. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Torreense (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 41.7% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1 and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 28.8%, with a combined stake of $208. The sharpest edge was on Over 1 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 22.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-208.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$7.28.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Over 1: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.2% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Over 1: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.2% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-104.36 (ROI: -93.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-104.36 (ROI: -93.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Torreense's favor. Torreense had 14 shots (2 on target) versus Casa Pia's 6 (2 on target). Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -93.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-4.00.
A tough session at -93.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-4.00.
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