Tondela

0 - 0

Moreirense

Tondela hosted Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: M. Aiko (18'), Rony Lopes (60'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-872.00 (ROI: -51.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.11 to 1.95.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Moreirense -0.5. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Tondela leading 1-0 at 25'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Moreirense -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 30.2%, with a combined stake of $1491. The sharpest edge was on Moreirense -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-672.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Moreirense -1: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 42.1% (42.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 63.7% (10.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-672.00 (ROI: -45.1%)

Possession was 41–59 in Tondela's deficit. Tondela had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Moreirense's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Tondela 1.39 — Moreirense 0.26. Corners: 1-7.