Sporting CP

2 - 2

Tondela

Sporting CP hosted Tondela in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: L. Suarez (62'), J. Silva (78' OG), J. Silva (79' OG), S. Blopa (90' OG), Cicero (90'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$5828.90 (ROI: +73.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -2.25 to -2.5; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.86.

### Wave 1 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $4429. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.8% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting +$446.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system_S5_live, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Tondela -1 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 30.1%, with a combined stake of $1717. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.3% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 33.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$2454.75. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tondela -1. Average expected value was 33.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.7% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 30.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$285.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sporting CP leading 1-0 at 62'. L. Suarez scored moments ago. Sporting CP made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tondela -1.5. Average expected value was 52.0%, with a combined stake of $1578. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 50.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2643.15.

- **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 37.4% (50.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1.5: AI saw 86.9% vs market's 37.4% (49.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1.5: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 37.4% (49.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1: AI saw 70.3% vs market's 36.4% (33.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 36.4% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$2579.50 (ROI: +102.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$2506.50 (ROI: +92.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$657.90 (ROI: +28.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$285.00 (ROI: +142.5%) - **system_S5_live**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 64%–37% in Sporting CP's favor. Sporting CP had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Tondela's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Sporting CP 1.67 — Tondela 0.04. Corners: 5-3.