Sporting CP3 - 0GIL Vicente
Sporting CPWhy did AI enter 2 times at 58', 65' — and still finish +$82?
Match Overview
Sporting CP hosted GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: E. Quaresma (15'), L. Suarez (34'), M. Hjulmand (90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$82.06 (ROI: +10.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -2; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 58' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Sporting CP leading 2-0 at 58'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting GIL Vicente -1.5 and Over 2.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 34.7%, with a combined stake of $318. The sharpest edge was on GIL Vicente -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 39.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting $-281.44. ### Wave 2 — Minute 65' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Sporting CP leading 2-0 at 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap GIL Vicente -1.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 49.4% (39.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap GIL Vicente -1.5: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 49.4% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.5% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.5% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.8% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$363.50 (ROI: +72.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-140.72 (ROI: -88.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-140.72 (ROI: -88.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Sporting CP's favor. Sporting CP had 14 shots (4 on target) versus GIL Vicente's 10 (1 on target). Expected goals: Sporting CP 1.59 — GIL Vicente 0.68. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +10.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$363.50.
A positive result with +10.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$82.06. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$363.50.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.