SC Braga2 - 2Estrela
SC BragaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 10' — and still finish $-19?
Match Overview
SC Braga hosted Estrela in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: S. Lekovic (5'), S. Lekovic (6'), G. Martinez (15'), G. Martinez (16'), P. Victor (89' pen), P. Victor (90' pen), S. Lekovic (90'). Estrela received a red card (S. Lekovic, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-18.60 (ROI: -64.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.92; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Braga -0.75. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Estrela leading 0-1 at 10'. S. Lekovic scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Braga -0.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 23.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga -0.5: AI saw 61.6% vs market's 38.5% (23.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.40 (ROI: +160.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 74–26 in SC Braga's favor. SC Braga had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Estrela's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: SC Braga 2.41 — Estrela 0.22. Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -64.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$6.40.
A tough session at -64.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$6.40.
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