Santa Clara

2 - 1

SC Braga

Santa Clara hosted SC Braga in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: R. Zalazar (30'), G. Paciencia (71'), Gabriel Silva (83'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2461.00 (ROI: -100.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline shortened from 3.7 to 3.37.

### Wave 1 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** SC Braga leading 0-1 at 71'. G. Paciencia scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting SC Braga 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $2461. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 39.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2461.00.

- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga 0: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 41.2% (39.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga 0: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 41.2% (38.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 72'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 33.3% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 72'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 48.7% vs market's 33.3% (15.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1224.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1237.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 38%–64% in Santa Clara's deficit. Santa Clara had 14 shots (3 on target) versus SC Braga's 2 (1 on target). Expected goals: Santa Clara 2.55 — SC Braga 0.12. Corners: 4-1.