Santa Clara2 - 0Nacional
Santa ClaraWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 25', 28', 46' — and still finish $-1095?
Match Overview
Santa Clara hosted Nacional in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: P. Pacheco (27'), Elias Manoel (90'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 4 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-1094.50 (ROI: -35.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.95 to 2.45.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $722. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 61.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-361.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Nacional 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Nacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 17.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-233.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Santa Clara leading 1-0 at 28'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nacional -1. Average expected value was 38.2%, with a combined stake of $842. The sharpest edge was on Nacional -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 36.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Santa Clara leading 1-0 at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nacional -0.5. Average expected value was 41.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Nacional -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Nacional -0.5: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 36.4% (39.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Nacional -1: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 54.1% (36.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nacional 0: AI saw 65.1% vs market's 47.6% (17.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-361.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-733.50 (ROI: -31.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41–59 in Santa Clara's deficit. Santa Clara had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Nacional's 12 (1 on target). Expected goals: Santa Clara 0.69 — Nacional 0.52. Corners: 4-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -35.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-361.00.
A tough session at -35.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-361.00.
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