Rio Ave

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Sporting CP

Rio Ave hosted Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-4. Goals: Diogo Bezerra (12'), Diogo Bezerra (13'), L. Suarez (35' pen), Gustavo Mancha (42' OG), Trincao (66'), Trincao (67'), G. Quenda (90'). Rio Ave received a red card (F. Petrasso, 52'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 4 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1274.62 (ROI: -31.9%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.75 to 2; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 10.67 to 13.37.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rio Ave +2. Average expected value was 27.0%, with a combined stake of $751. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-751.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Rio Ave leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sporting CP +1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $1150. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$13.25. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Sporting CP leading 1-2 at 45'. Gustavo Mancha scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Rio Ave +1.5 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 37.7%, with a combined stake of $1599. The sharpest edge was on Rio Ave +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.9% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-36.87. ### Wave 4 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Sporting CP leading 1-2 at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 33.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave +1.5: AI saw 83.9% vs market's 40.0% (43.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 40.0% (30.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 47.6% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 89.8% vs market's 65.2% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP +1: AI saw 67.8% vs market's 44.4% (23.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-523.62 (ROI: -16.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-751.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 36–64 in Rio Ave's deficit. Rio Ave had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Sporting CP's 14 (3 on target). Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.7 — Sporting CP 1.49. Corners: 5-6.