Nacional

2 - 0

Guimaraes

Nacional hosted Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: J. Ramirez (69'), J. Ramirez (86' pen). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 71% precision with a net result of $-28.66 (ROI: -3.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.85 to 2.21.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nacional -0.5. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Nacional -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.7% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 16.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nacional and Nacional -0.5. Average expected value was 22.8%, with a combined stake of $281. The sharpest edge was on Nacional (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 49.9% probability versus the market's implied 34.2% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.92. **Result:** All 12 trades won, netting +$487.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$4.26. ### Wave 4 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5 and Guimaraes -1. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $526. The sharpest edge was on Guimaraes -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 39.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-526.00.

- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Guimaraes -1: AI saw 94.2% vs market's 54.8% (39.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Guimaraes -1: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 54.8% (39.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Guimaraes -1: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 54.8% (39.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Nacional -0.5: AI saw 59.7% vs market's 43.5% (16.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Nacional: AI saw 49.9% vs market's 34.2% (15.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$180.76 (ROI: +175.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$170.49 (ROI: +148.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$122.89 (ROI: +138.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-502.80 (ROI: -98.2%)

Possession was 34–66 in Nacional's deficit. Nacional had 5 shots (3 on target) versus Guimaraes's 13 (4 on target). Expected goals: Nacional 0.93 — Guimaraes 1.38. Corners: 2-6.