Moreirense

1 - 0

Estoril

Moreirense hosted Estoril in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: Alanzinho (12'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 6 waves, achieving 80% precision with a net result of +$5831.35 (ROI: +67.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.89; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 17'. Alanzinho scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Estoril -1. Average expected value was 35.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Estoril -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 31.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$145.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Estoril -1 and Moreirense and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 19.8%, with a combined stake of $3839. The sharpest edge was on Estoril -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.5% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 34.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2653.22. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Estoril 0 and Estoril -0.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 24.4%, with a combined stake of $3075. The sharpest edge was on Estoril -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.9% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 5 of 6 trades won, netting +$3078.63. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Estoril 0. Average expected value was 27.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Estoril 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 25.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 62'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 67'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$454.50.

- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -0.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 38.5% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -0.5: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 40.0% (35.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -1: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 56.3% (34.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -1: AI saw 90.4% vs market's 56.3% (34.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 17'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -1: AI saw 89.6% vs market's 58.0% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/0L/1V, +$2778.43 (ROI: +75.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$2453.42 (ROI: +57.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$599.50 (ROI: +85.6%)

Possession was 43%–57% in Moreirense's deficit. Moreirense had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Estoril's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Moreirense 0.86 — Estoril 0.35. Corners: 5-1.