Moreirense0 - 0AVS
MoreirenseWhy did AI enter 4 times at 46', 50', 53', 66' — and still finish $-343?
Match Overview
Moreirense hosted AVS in the Primeira Liga, finishing 0-0. Goals: Yan Maranhao (49'), G. Neiva (54'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 19% precision with a net result of $-343.25 (ROI: -71.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.88 to 2.18.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting AVS and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $191. The sharpest edge was on AVS (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 45.0% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 18.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-191.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Moreirense leading 1-0 at 50'. Yan Maranhao scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Moreirense and Over 1.25 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 19.2%, with a combined stake of $241. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-241.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $41. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.5% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 9.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$96.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. Moreirense made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 1.25: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 51.0% (19.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline AVS: AI saw 45.0% vs market's 26.7% (18.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline AVS: AI saw 45.0% vs market's 27.0% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline AVS: AI saw 45.0% vs market's 27.8% (17.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 2W/8L, $-105.15 (ROI: -62.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 2W/9L, $-238.10 (ROI: -76.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64–36 in Moreirense's favor. Moreirense had 12 shots (4 on target) versus AVS's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Moreirense 0.88 — AVS 1.05. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -71.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-105.15.
A tough session at -71.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-105.15.
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