Guimaraes

2 - 0

Rio Ave

Guimaraes hosted Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: Samu (72'), T. Strata (90'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 3 waves, achieving 17% precision with a net result of $-3527.00 (ROI: -50.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.84.

### Wave 1 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 63'. Guimaraes made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Rio Ave -0.5 and Draw and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $5060. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 18.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 2 of 9 trades won, netting $-3527.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 73' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Guimaraes leading 1-0 at 73'. Samu scored moments ago. Guimaraes made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rio Ave -1. Average expected value was 59.5%, with a combined stake of $1191. The sharpest edge was on Rio Ave -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 57.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 79' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Guimaraes leading 1-0 at 79'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rio Ave -1. Average expected value was 56.2%, with a combined stake of $729. The sharpest edge was on Rio Ave -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 54.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 40.0% (57.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 40.0% (57.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 79'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 42.6% (54.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 61.9% (18.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 61.9% (18.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-1658.50 (ROI: -54.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-1668.50 (ROI: -55.0%)

Guimaraes had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Rio Ave's 0 (0 on target). Expected goals: Guimaraes 1.1 — Rio Ave 0. Corners: 3-1.