Guimaraes0 - 1Casa Pia
GuimaraesWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-511 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Guimaraes hosted Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: G. Larrazabal (86'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-511.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.93.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Guimaraes -0.75. Average expected value was 19.0%, with a combined stake of $511. The sharpest edge was on Guimaraes -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-511.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-511.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 71–29 in Guimaraes's favor. Guimaraes had 15 shots (2 on target) versus Casa Pia's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Guimaraes 0.94 — Casa Pia 0.88. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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