GIL Vicente

2 - 1

Casa Pia

GIL Vicente hosted Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: Murilo de Souza (31'), Cassiano (45' pen), Murilo de Souza (73' pen). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 6 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$4171.25 (ROI: +34.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.58 to 1.74.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting GIL Vicente -0.5 and GIL Vicente and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1025.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Casa Pia -1 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 29.6%, with a combined stake of $3132. The sharpest edge was on Casa Pia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.4% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 38.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-2132.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** GIL Vicente leading 1-0 at 45'. Cassiano scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Casa Pia -0.5. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1552.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** GIL Vicente leading 1-0 at 49'. Cassiano scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Casa Pia 0. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Casa Pia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 30.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Cassiano's equalizer at 45'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 30.3%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2250.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 76' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** GIL Vicente leading 2-1 at 76'. Murilo de Souza scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting GIL Vicente and Casa Pia 0 and Casa Pia -1. Average expected value was 48.1%, with a combined stake of $1574. The sharpest edge was on Casa Pia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 54.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1476.25.

- **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Casa Pia -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 42.6% (54.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap Casa Pia 0: AI saw 81.2% vs market's 37.4% (43.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 76'** — Moneyline GIL Vicente: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 41.7% (38.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Casa Pia -1: AI saw 79.4% vs market's 41.2% (38.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Casa Pia -1: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 41.2% (37.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1476.25 (ROI: +93.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/3L/2V, +$972.50 (ROI: +19.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/3L/2V, +$972.50 (ROI: +19.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$750.00 (ROI: +150.0%)

GIL Vicente had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Casa Pia's 0 (0 on target).