GIL Vicente

0 - 1

Arouca

GIL Vicente hosted Arouca in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-3. Goals: B. Kuipers (61'), L. Esteves (63'), I. Barbero (67'), T. Fukui (82'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 9 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-1369.00 (ROI: -24.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GIL Vicente -0.75. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $434. The sharpest edge was on GIL Vicente -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.3% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-434.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and GIL Vicente. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 45.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Arouca -0.5. Average expected value was 3.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$412.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting GIL Vicente +0.5 and Arouca. Average expected value was 26.4%, with a combined stake of $1045. The sharpest edge was on GIL Vicente +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 36.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-145.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after L. Esteves's equalizer at 63'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-2 at 69'. I. Barbero scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 9 — Minute 82' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-2 at 82'. T. Fukui scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 25.2%, with a combined stake of $529. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.7% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$264.50.

- **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap GIL Vicente +0.5: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 48.8% (36.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 82'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 66.7% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-434.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/5L, $-935.00 (ROI: -18.4%)

Possession was 45–55 in GIL Vicente's deficit. GIL Vicente had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Arouca's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: GIL Vicente 0.65 — Arouca 1.38. Corners: 5-2.