FC Porto1 - 0Santa Clara
FC PortoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 45', 55', 63', 70' — and still finish $-236?
Match Overview
FC Porto hosted Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: S. Lima (69' OG). OddsFlow deployed 25 trades across 4 waves, achieving 12% precision with a net result of $-235.72 (ROI: -31.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Santa Clara -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 52.6%, with a combined stake of $623. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 40.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** 0 of 15 trades won, netting $-155.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santa Clara -0.5. Average expected value was 28.4%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-12.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 63'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Santa Clara -0.5. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $85. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 27.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-85.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Porto leading 1-0 at 70'. S. Lima scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santa Clara -1.5. Average expected value was 46.0%, with a combined stake of $19. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 46.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$16.27.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1.5: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 50.6% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1.5: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 50.6% (46.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 47.4% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 47.4% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 47.4% (40.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 1W/1L/3V, +$2.53 (ROI: +1.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 1W/4L/3V, $-68.12 (ROI: -29.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-85.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 1W/4L/3V, $-85.12 (ROI: -33.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in FC Porto's favor. FC Porto had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Santa Clara's 8 (0 on target). Expected goals: FC Porto 0.8 — Santa Clara 0.38. Corners: 8-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -31.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$2.53.
A tough session at -31.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$2.53.
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