FC Porto1 - 0Alverca
FC PortoWhy did AI enter 2 times at 69', 81' — and still finish +$5427?
Match Overview
FC Porto hosted Alverca in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: J. Bednarek (40'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$5427.46 (ROI: +70.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Porto leading 1-0 at 69'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Alverca -1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 33.8%, with a combined stake of $7238. The sharpest edge was on Alverca -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 41.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$5063.96. ### Wave 2 — Minute 81' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Porto leading 1-0 at 81'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Alverca -1.5: AI saw 94.5% vs market's 52.6% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Alverca -1.5: AI saw 96.6% vs market's 54.8% (41.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Alverca -1.5: AI saw 94.1% vs market's 52.6% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 65.2% (22.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.0% vs market's 66.7% (18.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1764.96 (ROI: +68.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1649.60 (ROI: +71.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1649.40 (ROI: +70.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$363.50 (ROI: +72.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in FC Porto's favor. FC Porto had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Alverca's 4 (2 on target). Expected goals: FC Porto 0.62 — Alverca 0.26. Corners: 5-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +70.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1764.96.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +70.1% ROI on 7 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1764.96.
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