Famalicao1 - 0Alverca
FamalicaoWhy did AI enter 5 times at 10', 29', 35', 49', 66' — and still finish $-98?
Match Overview
Famalicao hosted Alverca in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: U. Abubakar (83'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 10% precision with a net result of $-97.87 (ROI: -90.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.82; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alverca -1. Average expected value was 14.8%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Alverca -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.1% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 11.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alverca -0.5. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Alverca -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $77. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 36.6% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-77.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $19. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-19.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$2.13.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Alverca -1: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 58.8% (11.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-20.87 (ROI: -77.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-73.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in Famalicao's favor. Famalicao had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Alverca's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Famalicao 0.56 — Alverca 0.46. Corners: 6-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -90.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-4.00.
A tough session at -90.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-4.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.