Estrela

0 - 0

Famalicao

Estrela hosted Famalicao in the Primeira Liga, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 4 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-863.50 (ROI: -44.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 2.02; the home moneyline shortened from 3.67 to 3.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Famalicao +0.25. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $454. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-227.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 12.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-227.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-636.50 (ROI: -42.4%)

Possession was 39–61 in Estrela's deficit. Estrela had 4 shots (1 on target) versus Famalicao's 14 (4 on target). Expected goals: Estrela 0.25 — Famalicao 1.9. Corners: 3-10.