Estoril

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Famalicao

Estoril hosted Famalicao in the Primeira Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: J. De Haas (51' pen). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 3 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$1782.61 (ROI: +17.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.28 to 3.54.

### Wave 1 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Estoril +0.5 and Under 1.5 and Draw and Famalicao and Famalicao +1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 13.3%, with a combined stake of $8999. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 64.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 24.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 7 of 17 trades won, netting +$724.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Famalicao leading 0-1 at 52'. J. De Haas scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Famalicao. Average expected value was 37.2%, with a combined stake of $670. The sharpest edge was on Famalicao (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 83.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 29.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.833. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$558.11. ### Wave 3 — Minute 86' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Famalicao leading 0-1 at 86'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.

- **Minute 52'** — Moneyline Famalicao: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 54.6% (29.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 64.7% vs market's 40.0% (24.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 64.2% vs market's 40.0% (24.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 63.8% vs market's 40.0% (23.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 66.7% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$684.11 (ROI: +20.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$664.00 (ROI: +20.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$300.00 (ROI: +42.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$134.50 (ROI: +4.9%)

Possession was 45%–55% in Estoril's deficit. Estoril had 3 shots (1 on target) versus Famalicao's 3 (3 on target). Expected goals: Estoril 0.05 — Famalicao 0.22. Corners: 0-3.