Estoril1 - 3Benfica
EstorilWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-27 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Estoril hosted Benfica in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-3. Goals: R. Rios (7'), A. Bah (15'), Rafa Silva (16'), Peixinho (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-27.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.5 to 1.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 8.7 to 10.12.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Estoril +1.75. Average expected value was 31.6%, with a combined stake of $54. The sharpest edge was on Estoril +1.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 14.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-27.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Estoril +1.75: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 50.8% (14.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Estoril +1.75: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 52.4% (13.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, $-27.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47–53 in Estoril's deficit. Estoril had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Benfica's 18 (8 on target). Expected goals: Estoril 1.42 — Benfica 3.93. Corners: 2-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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