Casa Pia

2 - 0

Torreense

Casa Pia hosted Torreense in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: G. Larrazabal (38'), K. Osundina (77'), L. Ofori (77'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 4 waves, achieving 32% precision with a net result of $-117.43 (ROI: -22.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 1.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.26 to 2.46.

### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $206. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 54.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-206.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Torreense -1 and Torreense -0.5. Average expected value was 47.5%, with a combined stake of $34. The sharpest edge was on Torreense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 45.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-26.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Casa Pia leading 1-0 at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Torreense -1. Average expected value was 45.8%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Torreense -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 43.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Casa Pia leading 1-0 at 50'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Casa Pia. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $264. The sharpest edge was on Casa Pia (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 13.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$114.57.

- **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Torreense -0.5: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 36.4% (45.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Torreense -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 51.9% (45.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Torreense -0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 36.4% (45.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Torreense -0.5: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 36.4% (44.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Torreense -1: AI saw 95.8% vs market's 51.3% (44.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-36.65 (ROI: -19.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-39.28 (ROI: -31.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-41.50 (ROI: -21.6%)

Possession was 38–62 in Casa Pia's deficit. Casa Pia had 13 shots (8 on target) versus Torreense's 18 (2 on target). Corners: 5-9.