Casa Pia

1 - 1

Rio Ave

Casa Pia hosted Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: G. Larrazabal (35'), J. Blesa (52'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 4 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of $-102.39 (ROI: -19.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.98; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rio Ave -0.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $70. The sharpest edge was on Rio Ave -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$67.34. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Rio Ave -0.5 and Draw and Rio Ave -1.5 and Rio Ave -1. Average expected value was 28.3%, with a combined stake of $79. The sharpest edge was on Rio Ave -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 53.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 12 trades won, netting +$86.37. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Casa Pia leading 1-0 at 52'. J. Blesa scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Casa Pia. Average expected value was 55.4%, with a combined stake of $308. The sharpest edge was on Casa Pia (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 82.4% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 38.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-308.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 75'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $69. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 60.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$51.90.

- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 37.4% (53.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 91.2% vs market's 37.4% (53.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Rio Ave -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 38.5% (52.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Moneyline Casa Pia: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 43.5% (38.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Moneyline Casa Pia: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 45.2% (37.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$73.29 (ROI: +95.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$59.90 (ROI: +80.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, $-117.37 (ROI: -62.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, $-118.21 (ROI: -63.2%)

Possession was 41–59 in Casa Pia's deficit. Casa Pia had 20 shots (5 on target) versus Rio Ave's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Casa Pia 2.34 — Rio Ave 0.61. Corners: 8-0.