Benfica

2 - 2

SC Braga

Benfica hosted SC Braga in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: Rafa Silva (46'), P. Victor (48'), V. Pavlidis (64'), Gorby (88'), V. Pavlidis (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 6 waves, achieving 69% precision with a net result of +$6802.58 (ROI: +73.1%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Braga -1.25. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $709. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.8% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$723.18. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting SC Braga -1 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $2881. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 27.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1950.05. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.2% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting SC Braga -0.5 and SC Braga -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 24.8%, with a combined stake of $1578. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 43.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$868.60. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Benfica leading 2-1 at 65'. V. Pavlidis scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Benfica. Average expected value was 32.6%, with a combined stake of $611. The sharpest edge was on Benfica (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 81.3% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 25.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-611.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 76' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after V. Pavlidis's equalizer at 64'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting SC Braga -1 and Draw and SC Braga -0.5. Average expected value was 33.9%, with a combined stake of $3030. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 39.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$4371.75.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga -1.5: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 45.5% (43.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 58.0% (39.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga -0.5: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 42.1% (38.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap SC Braga -0.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 42.1% (38.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 30.8% (29.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2559.25 (ROI: +126.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2042.25 (ROI: +93.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, +$1477.90 (ROI: +33.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$723.18 (ROI: +102.0%)

Possession was 53–47 in Benfica's favor. Benfica had 24 shots (8 on target) versus SC Braga's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Benfica 3.17 — SC Braga 0.21. Corners: 8-1.