Benfica4 - 1Moreirense
BenficaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 63', 67', 73' — and still finish $-3576?
Match Overview
Benfica hosted Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, finishing 4-1. Goals: L. Barreiro (2'), Travassos (26'), R. Rios (29'), F. Ivanovic (89'), F. Ivanovic (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3576.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -2.25 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 1.85.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 63' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Benfica leading 2-1 at 63'. Benfica made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Moreirense -1.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 39.3%, with a combined stake of $2209. The sharpest edge was on Moreirense -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 52.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-2209.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 67' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Benfica leading 2-1 at 67'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Moreirense -1.5. Average expected value was 53.7%, with a combined stake of $1167. The sharpest edge was on Moreirense -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 50.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1167.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Benfica leading 2-1 at 73'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Moreirense -1.5. Average expected value was 44.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Moreirense -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Moreirense -1.5: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 44.4% (52.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Moreirense -1.5: AI saw 97.5% vs market's 46.5% (50.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Moreirense -1.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 54.8% (42.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 65.2% (19.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1167.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-2209.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Benfica's favor. Benfica had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Moreirense's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Benfica 1.39 — Moreirense 0.86. Corners: 9-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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