AVS

3 - 1

FC Porto

AVS hosted FC Porto in the Primeira Liga, finishing 3-1. Goals: Roni (23'), D. Gul (53'), D. Gul (54'), Roni (58'), A. Santos (80'). FC Porto received a red card (D. Prpic, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 7 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-1628.67 (ROI: -12.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 2 to 1.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 12.16 to 12.92.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AVS +1.75. Average expected value was 46.4%, with a combined stake of $1136. The sharpest edge was on AVS +1.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 18.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1158.72. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AVS leading 1-0 at 25'. Roni scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Porto +1. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FC Porto +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 19.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AVS leading 1-0 at 28'. Roni scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting FC Porto +1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $2160. The sharpest edge was on FC Porto +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 19.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2160.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AVS leading 1-0 at 40'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and FC Porto +0.5. Average expected value was 14.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 19.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AVS leading 1-0 at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and FC Porto +0.5 and FC Porto 0. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $2699. The sharpest edge was on FC Porto 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.8% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 33.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2699.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** AVS leading 2-1 at 60'. Roni scored moments ago. FC Porto made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 4.5 and AVS and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $2640. The sharpest edge was on AVS (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 63.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2751.10. ### Wave 7 — Minute 65' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** AVS leading 2-1 at 65'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.5 and FC Porto 0 and Under 4.5 and AVS. Average expected value was 28.0%, with a combined stake of $2713. The sharpest edge was on FC Porto 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 31.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$820.51.

- **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap FC Porto 0: AI saw 88.8% vs market's 55.6% (33.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap FC Porto 0: AI saw 83.7% vs market's 52.6% (31.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap FC Porto 0: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 58.8% (28.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Moneyline AVS: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 42.1% (27.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline AVS: AI saw 63.8% vs market's 40.0% (23.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1158.72 (ROI: +102.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$820.51 (ROI: +30.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/5L, $-1421.52 (ROI: -30.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-1986.37 (ROI: -47.7%)

Possession was 31–69 in AVS's deficit. AVS had 9 shots (5 on target) versus FC Porto's 20 (4 on target). Expected goals: AVS 0.75 — FC Porto 3.06. Corners: 3-7.