Arouca

3 - 1

Tondela

Arouca hosted Tondela in the Primeira Liga, finishing 3-1. Goals: T. Fukui (20'), Rony Lopes (65'), A. Trezza (77'), H. Lee (85'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 6 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-72.26 (ROI: -52.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.99; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.89 to 3.29.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Arouca +0.25. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 21' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-0 at 21'. T. Fukui scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tondela -0.5. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 24' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-0 at 24'. T. Fukui scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tondela -1. Average expected value was 33.3%, with a combined stake of $7. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 29.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Arouca and Tondela -0.5. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $16. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 32.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-3.44. ### Wave 5 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Arouca leading 1-0 at 43'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Tondela -1 and Arouca and Tondela -0.5. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $28. The sharpest edge was on Tondela -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 33.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 1 of 5 trades won, netting $-1.72. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Rony Lopes's equalizer at 65'. Tondela made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $73. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-73.00.

- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1: AI saw 92.5% vs market's 58.8% (33.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1: AI saw 92.4% vs market's 58.8% (33.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -1: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 58.8% (33.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -0.5: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 42.1% (32.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Tondela -0.5: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 42.6% (32.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.90 (ROI: +99.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, $-1.72 (ROI: -10.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -36.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-5.72 (ROI: -31.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-70.72 (ROI: -85.2%)

Possession was 52–48 in Arouca's favor. Arouca had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Tondela's 11 (2 on target). Expected goals: Arouca 1.53 — Tondela 0.51. Corners: 5-6.