Arouca

2 - 2

Santa Clara

Arouca hosted Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: H. Lee (8'), Gabriel Silva (10'), Gabriel Silva (11'), Tiago Esgaio (84'), Elias Manoel (90'). Arouca received a red card (V. Seabra, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 4 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$3714.05 (ROI: +42.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.09 to 1.94; the home moneyline shortened from 3 to 2.84.

### Wave 1 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 46'. Arouca down to 10 men (V. Seabra red card 45'). 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 46.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 49'. Arouca down to 10 men (V. Seabra red card 45'). 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Santa Clara 0 and Santa Clara. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $2896. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 30.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 0 of 5 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 54'. Arouca down to 10 men (V. Seabra red card 45'). 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.2% probability versus the market's implied 38.1% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.625. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$625.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 69'. Arouca down to 10 men (H. Lee red card 68'). 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santa Clara -0.5 and Santa Clara -1. Average expected value was 42.6%, with a combined stake of $2778. The sharpest edge was on Santa Clara -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 39.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2589.05.

- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 43.5% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1: AI saw 97.7% vs market's 58.0% (39.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -0.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 43.5% (39.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 58.0% (39.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Santa Clara 0: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 51.3% (30.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1859.20 (ROI: +43.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1854.85 (ROI: +43.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)

Possession was 56%–44% in Arouca's favor. Arouca had 4 shots (2 on target) versus Santa Clara's 2 (1 on target). Expected goals: Arouca 0.6 — Santa Clara 0.21. Corners: 2-2.