Alverca

1 - 1

Estoril

Alverca hosted Estoril in the Primeira Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: Figueiredo (12'), A. Lacximicant (47'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$3596.78 (ROI: +62.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.87; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.83.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 44.7%, with a combined stake of $1202. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 18.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1117.86. ### Wave 2 — Minute 27' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alverca leading 1-0 at 27'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Alverca and Estoril -0.5. Average expected value was 24.4%, with a combined stake of $1667. The sharpest edge was on Estoril -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$759.75. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Lacximicant's equalizer at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Estoril 0. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 50.2% probability versus the market's implied 38.1% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.625. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$812.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Lacximicant's equalizer at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $525. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 79.1% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 21.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$381.68. ### Wave 5 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 66'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Estoril 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $1325. The sharpest edge was on Estoril 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 27.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$525.00.

- **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Estoril 0: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 52.6% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Estoril -0.5: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 44.4% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 61.6% vs market's 40.0% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 57.9% (21.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2.75: AI saw 70.6% vs market's 51.8% (18.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$1953.93 (ROI: +61.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1117.86 (ROI: +93.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$525.00 (ROI: +39.6%)

Possession was 42–58 in Alverca's deficit. Alverca had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Estoril's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Alverca 1.27 — Estoril 0.9. Corners: 4-4.