Wolves1 - 1Fulham
WolvesWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 10', 25' — and still finish +$161?
Match Overview
Wolves hosted Fulham in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Mane (25'), A. Robinson (45' pen). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$161.33 (ROI: +48.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.5 to 4.02.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Wolves. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Wolves (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.2% probability versus the market's implied 24.9% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 4.02. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wolves +0.5. Average expected value was 18.3%, with a combined stake of $205. The sharpest edge was on Wolves +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$186.33. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fulham 0. Average expected value was 31.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Fulham 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 28.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fulham 0: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 40.0% (28.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Wolves +0.5: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 51.8% (11.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Wolves +0.5: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 52.6% (10.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Wolves +0.5: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 52.9% (10.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$186.33 (ROI: +61.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 30–70 in Wolves's deficit. Wolves had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Fulham's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Wolves 1.4 — Fulham 1.54. Corners: 3-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +48.9% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$186.33.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 24.9% / 26.0% / 51.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated Fulham's probability of winning, leading to value on the Draw.
The Premier League fixture between Wolves and Fulham concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored Fulham, assigning them a 51.81% probability of victory, while the draw was priced at 26.04%. This proved to be a significant market inefficiency, as the match ended in a stalemate, indicating that the odds for a draw presented strong EV+ value. In the Asian Handicap market, Fulham closed as -0.5 favorites with a 51.81% chance to cover. The draw meant Fulham failed to cover, highlighting a further misjudgment by the market. Conversely, the Totals market at 2.75 goals leaned towards the Under (52.91% probability), and with only 2 goals scored, this prediction proved accurate, demonstrating Closing Line Value on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +48.9% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$186.33.
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