Wolves2 - 0Aston Villa
WolvesWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Wolves hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League, finishing 2-0. Goals: Joao Gomes (61'), R. Gomes (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.09; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.86 to 4.42.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa +0.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39%–61% in Wolves's deficit. Wolves had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Aston Villa's 14 (4 on target). Expected goals: Wolves 0.57 — Aston Villa 0.96. Corners: 0-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.6% / 25.8% / 54.6% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued Aston Villa in the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
The Premier League fixture between Wolves and Aston Villa, ending 2-0 to Wolves, presented significant Market Inefficiencies according to OddsFlow AI's post-match analysis. The 1x2 market had Aston Villa as clear favorites with an implied win probability of 54.64%, while Wolves' victory was priced at a substantial 4.42 odds (22.62% implied probability). This outcome represents a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on Wolves, indicating the market profoundly mispriced their chances. In the Handicap market, Aston Villa -0.5 was also favored (54.05% implied probability), but Wolves comfortably covered the +0.5 line with their dominant 2-0 win, marking another clear market misjudgment. The Totals market (O/U 2.5) leaned towards the Over (54.05%), yet the match concluded with only 2 goals, resulting in an 'Under' outcome. The collective market sentiment clearly underestimated Wolves' capability and overestimated Aston Villa, creating a definitive Value Signal for bettors who fade the public.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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