West Ham1 - 1Manchester City
West HamWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-100 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
West Ham hosted Manchester City in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: B. Silva (31'), B. Silva (32'), K. Mavropanos (35'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 2.06; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.75 to 4.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 85' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 85'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester City +0.25. Average expected value was 11.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Manchester City +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 11.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 85'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City +0.25: AI saw 53.9% vs market's 42.6% (11.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 29%–71% in West Ham's deficit. West Ham had 1 shots (1 on target) versus Manchester City's 24 (5 on target). Expected goals: West Ham 0.54 — Manchester City 1.87. Corners: 1-15.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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