West Ham3 - 0Leeds
West HamWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 11', 35', 43', 69' — and still finish $-166?
Match Overview
West Ham hosted Leeds in the Premier League, finishing 3-0. Goals: T. Castellanos (67'), J. Bowen (79'), C. Wilson (90'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-165.77 (ROI: -21.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 1.88 to 1.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Leeds -0.75. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $37. The sharpest edge was on Leeds -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 8.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-37.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Leeds 0. Average expected value was 24.4%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Leeds 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $177. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.5% probability versus the market's implied 25.3% — a 13.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.95. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-177.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $118. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.1% probability versus the market's implied 25.3% — a 8.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.95. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-118.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** West Ham leading 1-0 at 69'. T. Castellanos scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting West Ham. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $337. The sharpest edge was on West Ham (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 77.7% probability versus the market's implied 55.9% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.79. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$266.23.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 11'** — Asian Handicap Leeds 0: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 38.5% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline West Ham: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 55.9% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline West Ham: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 55.9% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline West Ham: AI saw 69.4% vs market's 55.9% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline West Ham: AI saw 69.4% vs market's 55.9% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-1.87 (ROI: -0.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-26.90 (ROI: -7.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-37.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-100.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42–58 in West Ham's deficit. West Ham had 13 shots (7 on target) versus Leeds's 13 (3 on target). Expected goals: West Ham 2.03 — Leeds 1.57. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -21.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1.87.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.1% / 24.3% / 22.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated West Ham's winning margin, leading to Closing Line Value on West Ham -0.75 Handicap.
West Ham secured a commanding 3-0 victory against Leeds. The 1x2 market correctly identified West Ham as the market favorite with an implied probability of 57.14%. The Handicap market, setting West Ham at -0.75 with a 51.02% probability to cover, represented a significant market inefficiency. West Ham's dominant 3-goal margin easily covered this line, indicating strong Closing Line Value (CLV) on the home side. The Totals (Over/Under 2.75) market also leaned Over with a 54.64% probability; the 3 actual goals resulted in a half-win for Over, showing a relatively efficient market though perhaps with a slight undervaluation of the goal potential. The most pronounced error by bookmakers was underestimating West Ham's winning margin.
A tough session at -21.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1.87.
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