West Ham2 - 1Everton
West Ham4 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
West Ham hosted Everton in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: T. Soucek (52'), K. Dewsbury-Hall (88'), C. Wilson (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$2787.50 (ROI: +83.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** West Ham leading 1-0 at 66'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Everton -1 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 37.2%, with a combined stake of $3340. The sharpest edge was on Everton -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.6% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 44.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2787.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 97.6% vs market's 53.3% (44.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 53.3% (44.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 54.1% (43.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1459.88 (ROI: +80.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1157.63 (ROI: +87.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%)
Match Statistics
West Ham had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Everton's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: West Ham 0.8 — Everton 0.67. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +83.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1459.88.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.1% / 28.7% / 32.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated West Ham's ability to cover the -0.25 Asian Handicap.
The match between West Ham and Everton concluded 2-1, with West Ham securing the victory. In the 1x2 Market, West Ham was correctly identified as the market favorite (41.15% probability), and their outright win aligned with this expectation. The Goals Over/Under 2.5 market also performed efficiently, with the "Over" carrying a 53.48% probability, accurately predicting the 3 total goals scored. However, a clear Market Inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap. Despite West Ham winning the match 2-1, effectively covering the -0.25 line, the market favored Everton +0.25 to cover with a 54.64% probability. This indicates that bookmakers significantly underestimated West Ham's ability to cover their small handicap, presenting a clear Closing Line Value opportunity for those backing the home side.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +83.5% ROI on 4 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1459.88.
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