West Ham0 - 0Bournemouth
West Ham1 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
West Ham hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 2.01; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.6 to 2.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting West Ham 0. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on West Ham 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap West Ham 0: AI saw 62.0% vs market's 51.9% (10.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in West Ham's deficit. West Ham had 20 shots (3 on target) versus Bournemouth's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: West Ham 2.82 — Bournemouth 0.65. Corners: 9-5.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.0% / 26.7% / 39.1% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the likelihood of goals in the Over/Under 3 market, resulting in a clear Under 3 value.
The Premier League fixture between West Ham and Bournemouth concluded in a 0-0 draw, a result that starkly exposed significant **market inefficiencies**. The 1x2 market initially priced Bournemouth as slight favorites with a 39.06% win probability, while the draw stood at 26.67%. The actual outcome was a draw, indicating that the market **underestimated** the probability of neither team securing a victory. In the Asian Handicap market, the closing line of 0 also saw Bournemouth as the favorite to cover at 52.36%. With a 0-0 finish, neither side covered, highlighting an **overestimation** of Bournemouth's capacity. However, the most pronounced **value signal** emerged from the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 3 goals, the market implied a 51.28% chance for Over and Under goals respectively. The match ended goalless (0 goals), a definitive **Under** outcome. This represents a substantial mispricing by the market, where the expectation of goal volume was severely inflated. Punters holding **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on the Under 3 would have found a clear edge.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
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