West Ham0 - 1Arsenal
West HamWhy did AI enter 2 times at 49', 82' — and still finish $-2000?
Match Overview
West Ham hosted Arsenal in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: L. Trossard (83'), C. Wilson (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2000.00 (ROI: -74.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.02 to 5.69.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Arsenal +1 and West Ham +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $2200. The sharpest edge was on Arsenal +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 44.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 5 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 82' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 82'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-1000.00 (ROI: -66.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1000.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36–64 in West Ham's deficit. West Ham had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Arsenal's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: West Ham 1.28 — Arsenal 1.36. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -74.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 17.6% / 23.0% / 63.3% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Over 2.75 Goals was significantly overvalued.
In the Premier League fixture between West Ham and Arsenal, which concluded 0-1, the market displayed notable inefficiencies. Arsenal's victory aligned with their status as the moneyline favorite, holding a 63.29% win probability. However, the handicap market set at Arsenal -1 (with 50.25% probability to cover) proved challenging, as Arsenal's 1-0 win resulted in a push, indicating West Ham +1 was the EV+ outcome. The most significant mispricing occurred in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.75 goals, the market was almost balanced (Over 51.02%, Under 51.81%). The actual score of 1 goal decisively hit the Under, suggesting the Over 2.75 line was significantly overvalued and the Under offered substantial Closing Line Value (CLV).
A tough session at -74.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$0.00.
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