Tottenham

0 - 3

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 0-3. Goals: Igor Jesus (45'), M. Gibbs-White (62'), T. Awoniyi (87'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$486.00 (ROI: +9.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.8; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 2.02.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest 0. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 13.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Tottenham +0.5 and Nottingham Forest and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 18.0%, with a combined stake of $3046. The sharpest edge was on Tottenham +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 31.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$286.00.

- **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham +0.5: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 45.5% (31.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham +0.5: AI saw 76.0% vs market's 45.5% (30.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest 0: AI saw 58.9% vs market's 45.5% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest 0: AI saw 58.5% vs market's 45.5% (13.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$248.00 (ROI: +9.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$238.00 (ROI: +9.4%)

Possession was 58%–42% in Tottenham's favor. Tottenham had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 8 (7 on target). Expected goals: Tottenham 1.14 — Nottingham Forest 1.48. Corners: 13-3.