Sunderland0 - 5Nottingham Forest
SunderlandWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish $-464?
Match Overview
Sunderland hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 0-5. Goals: T. Hume (17' OG), Igor Jesus (17'), C. Wood (31'), M. Gibbs-White (34'), Igor Jesus (37'), D. Ballard (61'), E. Anderson (90'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of $-464.00 (ROI: -18.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.96; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 1.94.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest 0. Average expected value was 17.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 15.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Nottingham Forest leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sunderland +0.5 and Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $2330. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 28.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-664.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland +0.5: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 46.5% (28.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland +0.5: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 46.5% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest 0: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 50.0% (15.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$200.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-328.00 (ROI: -28.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-336.00 (ROI: -28.7%)
Match Statistics
Sunderland had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -18.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.1% / 30.8% / 36.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely mispriced Nottingham Forest's win potential and the Over 2.25 goals line.
The match between Sunderland and Nottingham Forest concluded with a dominant 0-5 away victory for Nottingham Forest. The 1x2 market severely mispriced this outcome; the closing **ML probabilities** indicated a tight contest, with Sunderland (36.1%) slightly favored over Nottingham Forest (35.97%) and a Draw (30.77%). The actual result of a 0-5 away win demonstrates a significant **market inefficiency**, as the market dramatically underestimated Nottingham Forest's strength. On the Asian Handicap market, the **HDP line** of 0 saw both teams at 51.02% probability to cover. Nottingham Forest's five-goal margin easily covered this line, again highlighting a major market misjudgment regarding the away team's superiority. For the Totals market, the **OU line** was set at 2.25 goals, with the market leaning slightly towards the Over (51.55% vs 51.02% for Under). With a total of 5 goals scored, the **Over 2.25 goals** was an unequivocal **value signal**, indicating the market significantly under-projected the goal volume.
A tough session at -18.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$200.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.