Sunderland0 - 1Liverpool
SunderlandWhy did AI enter 2 times at 41', 56' — and still finish +$891?
Match Overview
Sunderland hosted Liverpool in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: H. Diarra (61' OG), V. van Dijk (61'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$890.82 (ROI: +96.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 1.93; the home moneyline shortened from 5.03 to 4.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Liverpool +0.5 and Liverpool +0.75. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$265.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Liverpool. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $522. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$625.82.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool +0.75: AI saw 61.5% vs market's 48.8% (12.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool +0.5: AI saw 66.0% vs market's 55.6% (10.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$890.82 (ROI: +96.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Sunderland's deficit. Sunderland had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Liverpool's 23 (3 on target). Expected goals: Sunderland 0.66 — Liverpool 1.84. Corners: 3-11.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +96.7% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 21.1% / 25.0% / 56.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant EV+ on Under 2.75 Goals
The Premier League clash between Sunderland and Liverpool concluded 0-1, with Liverpool securing a narrow victory. The 1x2 market accurately priced Liverpool as the market favorite with a 56.5% win probability, a prediction aligned with the final outcome. In the Asian Handicap market, Liverpool (-0.75) failed to fully cover, resulting in a half-loss for backers, while Sunderland (+0.75) delivered a half-win. However, the most notable inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line suggesting a slight lean towards Under 2.75 Goals at 52.08%, the actual total of 1 goal proved this to be a significant EV+ signal for Under bettors. The market's 50.51% probability for Over was a considerable mispricing given the low-scoring affair.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +96.7% ROI on 3 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
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