Sunderland2 - 1Chelsea
SunderlandWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 11', 25' — and still finish $-134?
Match Overview
Sunderland hosted Chelsea in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: T. Hume (25'), M. Gusto (50' OG), C. Palmer (56'). Chelsea received a red card (W. Fofana, 62'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-133.60 (ROI: -58.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.83 to 3.39.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Sunderland. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $27. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 36.6% probability versus the market's implied 28.6% — a 8.0 percentage point gap at odds of 3.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$66.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea 0. Average expected value was 10.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea -0.5. Average expected value was 22.9%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -0.5: AI saw 65.7% vs market's 45.5% (20.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$66.40 (ROI: +245.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Sunderland's deficit. Sunderland had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Chelsea's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Sunderland 1.94 — Chelsea 0.9. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -58.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$66.40.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 29.5% / 26.7% / 47.2% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The outright 1x2 market heavily mispriced Sunderland's winning probability.
Sunderland secured a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, creating significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing odds implied a 47.17% chance for a Chelsea win, marking them as clear favorites, while Sunderland's win probability was a mere 29.5%. This outcome represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the home side. In the Asian Handicap market, Chelsea was priced to cover -0.25 at 54.05%, yet failed to do so as Sunderland secured the outright win, providing another clear value signal. The Totals market saw 3 goals scored, hitting the Over 2.75 despite the market leaning slightly towards the Under at 52.91% probability. The primary error was the market's strong conviction in a Chelsea victory.
A tough session at -58.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$66.40.
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