Sunderland

0 - 1

Brighton

Sunderland hosted Brighton in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: C. Rigg (49'), Y. Minteh (58'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$1496.80 (ROI: +20.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 2.07; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.27 to 3.66.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Sunderland +0.5. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 40.7% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Brighton -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Brighton 0. Average expected value was 30.4%, with a combined stake of $3412. The sharpest edge was on Brighton -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 41.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1503.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 0-1 at 58'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brighton and Sunderland +1. Average expected value was 29.2%, with a combined stake of $2068. The sharpest edge was on Brighton (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 81.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 31.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1993.00.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Brighton -0.5: AI saw 84.0% vs market's 42.1% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Brighton -0.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 42.1% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Moneyline Brighton: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 50.0% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland +1: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 51.9% (25.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Brighton 0: AI saw 84.7% vs market's 58.8% (25.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$774.80 (ROI: +20.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$722.00 (ROI: +19.4%)

Possession was 47%–53% in Sunderland's deficit. Sunderland had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Brighton's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Sunderland 0.85 — Brighton 1.46. Corners: 7-3.