Nottingham Forest1 - 1Newcastle
Nottingham ForestWhy did AI enter 8 times at 0', 24', 33', 36', 40', 50', 64', 75' — and still finish +$1918?
Match Overview
Nottingham Forest hosted Newcastle in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: H. Barnes (74'), E. Anderson (88'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 8 waves, achieving 62% precision with a net result of +$1918.00 (ROI: +32.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 2.11; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.49 to 2.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 22.2%, with a combined stake of $296. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.6% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.87. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-296.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 24' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 24'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest +0.5 and Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $2200. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting $-40.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.3% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1100.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 64'. Newcastle made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 75'. Newcastle made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest +1. Average expected value was 40.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 41.7% — a 38.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$700.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest +1: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 41.7% (38.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 24'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest +0.5: AI saw 66.0% vs market's 55.6% (10.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest +0.5: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 55.6% (10.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1304.00 (ROI: +43.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$750.00 (ROI: +30.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$160.00 (ROI: +80.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-296.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Nottingham Forest's deficit. Nottingham Forest had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Newcastle's 16 (6 on target). Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.14 — Newcastle 1.55. Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1304.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.8% / 28.3% / 40.2% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw.
The match between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced the outcome, with Newcastle being the market favorite (40.16% implied win probability) and the draw having the lowest probability (28.33%). The actual draw outcome represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV). In the Asian Handicap (0 line), Newcastle was favored to cover at 54.95%, but the draw meant neither team covered. For the Totals (O/U 2.75), the market was effectively balanced (51.55% Over / 51.55% Under), yet the match ended with only 2 goals, resulting in an Under outcome. The collective market sentiment clearly overestimated Newcastle's winning chances and failed to adequately price the likelihood of a stalemate and lower goal count.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.0% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1304.00.
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