Nottingham Forest0 - 0Fulham
Nottingham ForestWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 40', 64' — and still finish +$488?
Match Overview
Nottingham Forest hosted Fulham in the Premier League, finishing 0-0. Goals: D. Ndoye (63'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of +$487.50 (ROI: +13.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.16 to 2.37.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Fulham 0 and Fulham and Draw. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $2145. The sharpest edge was on Fulham 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.8% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 27.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$437.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1050.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nottingham Forest leading 1-0 at 64'. D. Ndoye scored moments ago. Fulham made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 28.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 64'** — Moneyline Nottingham Forest: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 43.5% (29.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fulham 0: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 43.5% (27.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fulham 0: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 43.5% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Moneyline Nottingham Forest: AI saw 60.7% vs market's 41.7% (19.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$550.00 (ROI: +35.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-62.50 (ROI: -3.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Nottingham Forest's deficit. Nottingham Forest had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Fulham's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.41 — Fulham 0.67. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$550.00.
A positive result with +13.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$487.50. Top performer: Active Trader at +$550.00.
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