Nottingham Forest1 - 1Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Nottingham Forest hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Gibbs-White (5'), M. Gibbs-White (6'), I. Sarr (45' pen). Nottingham Forest received a red card (N. Williams, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$141.78 (ROI: +110.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 2.09; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.97 to 2.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nottingham Forest leading 1-0 at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace -1. Average expected value was 5.7%, with a combined stake of $129. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$141.78.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$141.78 (ROI: +110.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33%–67% in Nottingham Forest's deficit. Nottingham Forest had 9 shots (1 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 14 (3 on target). Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.49 — Crystal Palace 1.92. Corners: 5-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +110.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.5% / 0.3% / 0.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.25 Goals Value
The Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace match concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market initially favored Nottingham Forest with a 46.47% win probability, while the draw was the least likely outcome at 28.68%. This indicates a market overvaluation of the home win. In the Handicap market (-0.5), Crystal Palace (+0.5) was the slight favorite to cover at 53.32%, which proved efficient as the draw meant Palace covered. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (O/U 2.25) market. Despite the closing line showing a lean towards the Over with a 51.93% probability, the match finished with only two goals (1-1), providing a clear **EV+** signal for those who backed the **Under 2.25 goals**.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +110.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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