Nottingham Forest1 - 1Bournemouth
Nottingham ForestWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 11', 34', 56', 65' — and still finish +$2391?
Match Overview
Nottingham Forest hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Gibbs-White (34'), M. Tavernier (54'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 5 waves, achieving 90% precision with a net result of +$2391.00 (ROI: +136.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 2 to 2.06; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.62 to 3.67.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 23.2%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.4% probability versus the market's implied 27.2% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.67. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest +0.5. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $177. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$156.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nottingham Forest leading 1-0 at 34'. M. Gibbs-White scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth -0.5. Average expected value was 30.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 28.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$95.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Tavernier's equalizer at 54'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 30.8%, with a combined stake of $949. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 45.6% probability versus the market's implied 26.3% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.8. **Result:** All 14 trades won, netting +$1684.20. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Tavernier's equalizer at 54'. Nottingham Forest made 5 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$480.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth -0.5: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 51.3% (28.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 45.6% vs market's 26.3% (19.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 45.6% vs market's 26.3% (19.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 45.6% vs market's 26.3% (19.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 45.6% vs market's 26.3% (19.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$731.80 (ROI: +94.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$605.20 (ROI: +178.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$605.20 (ROI: +178.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$473.80 (ROI: +174.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Nottingham Forest's deficit. Nottingham Forest had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Bournemouth's 17 (4 on target). Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.87 — Bournemouth 1. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +136.6% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$731.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.3% / 26.3% / 49.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw probability.
The Premier League fixture between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market, heavily favoring Bournemouth with a 49.5% implied win probability, significantly undervalued the draw at 26.25%. This represents a clear Market Inefficiency. On the Asian Handicap (0.5), Bournemouth (-0.5) failed to cover, validating the market's slight lean towards Nottingham Forest (+0.5) covering at 52.91%. The Goals Over/Under market at 3.0 was relatively efficient, with the 'Under' outcome (2 total goals) aligning with the market's 54.05% probability lean for Under. The most pronounced error was the mispricing of the draw outcome.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +136.6% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$731.80.
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