Nottingham Forest1 - 1Aston Villa
Nottingham ForestWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 28', 38' — and still finish +$1221?
Match Overview
Nottingham Forest hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: Murillo (23' OG), N. Williams (38'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$1221.40 (ROI: +21.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.58 to 2.77.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 0-1 at 25'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest +0.5 and Aston Villa. Average expected value was 19.2%, with a combined stake of $2568. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$646.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 0-1 at 28'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Aston Villa 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after N. Williams's equalizer at 38'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 41.6% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 12.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$2075.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest +0.5: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 48.8% (30.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest +0.5: AI saw 78.4% vs market's 48.8% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 41.6% vs market's 29.4% (12.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa 0: AI saw 55.9% vs market's 44.4% (11.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa 0: AI saw 55.2% vs market's 44.4% (10.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$712.90 (ROI: +25.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$508.50 (ROI: +18.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41%–59% in Nottingham Forest's deficit. Nottingham Forest had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Aston Villa's 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.2 — Aston Villa 0.98. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +21.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$712.90.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 36.1% / 29.9% / 37.5% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The undervalued draw in the 1x2 market.
The Premier League clash between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, the draw was priced at an implied probability of 29.85%, with Aston Villa being the slight favorite at 37.45%. The actual draw outcome highlights a clear market inefficiency, as the draw was significantly undervalued by the closing line. For the Asian Handicap 0, the market slightly favored Aston Villa to cover at 52.08%. The 1-1 draw resulted in a push on this line, indicating neither team covered, and the market's lean towards an Aston Villa outright win did not materialize. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under 2.5 market demonstrated strong efficiency; the market correctly leaned towards the Under 2.5 (52.91% implied probability), with the match ending in 2 total goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +21.9% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$712.90.
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